LAUSR

Urban population decline in the largest metropolitan regions of the United States is now explained almost exclusively by a ‘Black exodus’. In Chicago, competing ‘push’ explanations have been put forth to explain Black population loss in urban neighbourhoods, including housing instability, cost of living, unemployment and crime. However, no study to date estimates the predictive power of each of these factors. This article seeks to answer the research question: which neighbourhood characteristics predict Black exodus in Chicago? We explore relationships between Black population loss in Chicago and a comprehensive range of metrics representing economic and social conditions. A fixed-effects multivariate panel regression is specified for the years 2010 to 2018 at the census tract level and cross-checked with bivariate Granger causality tests. We find that foreclosure filings predict Black population decline, and suggest that government prioritise foreclosure relief policies to stem Black exodus.