LAUSR

Core components of the Intake Assessment (IA) process in the Canadian federal corrections system were examined to determine whether a simplified algorithmic equation for individuals sentenced for sex crimes could be tailored and differentiated from other violent offence types. Two major offence type categories, namely sexual and other violent were constructed for 2,896 adult male first releases for 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018. A restricted set of static risk indicators, dynamic need ratings, and other actuarial measures as well as whether or not there were any returns to federal custody were extracted for each case. A combined risk index yielded robust predictions of custodial return for sexual and other violent offence types with significant and robust AUCs of 0.77 and 0.71, respectively. Analyses showed that five-level risk groupings could be derived independently for the two offence type categorizations.