LAUSR

Background Associations of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and its longitudinal change with risk of fatal strokes are unclear in older populations. Methods In this retrospective analysis, a total of 27,799 participants were included and followed up for a mean of 14.3 years (standard deviation = 3.2). 838 stroke deaths were recorded. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess associations of NLR with fatal strokes. Results Compared to those in the first quartile and after adjustment for a series of factors, the participants in the highest neutrophil quartile had an increased risk of fatal all stroke (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–1.79) and fatal ischaemic stroke (aHR = 1.58, 95% CI, 1.17–2.12). Restricted cubic splines showed an increased trend of relationship between the NLR and fatal all stroke. The participants with the highest NLR quartile had an increased risk of fatal all stroke (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI, 1.23–1.88) and fatal ischaemic stroke (aHR = 1.59, 95% CI, 1.13–2.26), respectively; Similar associations repeated after further C-reactive protein adjustment; a 21% and a 32% increased risk of fatal all stroke and fatal ischaemic stroke showed in a continuous variable model. Those in NLR change with 5% increase had a 70% increased risk of fatal all stroke (aHR = 1.70, 95%CI, 1.13–2.57), compared to those in stable (−5%∼5%). Conclusions Higher NLR was associated with an increased risk of fatal all stroke and fatal ischaemic stroke, and its longitudinal change increase of ≥ 5% was associated with an increased risk of fatal all stroke in a relatively healthy older population.