LAUSR

Objective We aimed to evaluate the association between the shift of metabolic status and future risk of carotid artery plaque (CAP) in community-based Chinese adults. Methods The current study included 9836 Chinese adults (4085 males and 5751 females, mean age 35.8 years) with metabolically healthy status at baseline (2013). Metabolically healthy status was defined as no self-reported history of metabolic diseases and cancer, and normal blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin A1c level, and lipid profiles. Metabolically unhealthy status was defined if any of the following metabolic abnormalities were confirmed twice during follow up: high blood pressure, impaired glucose regulation, high triglycerides, high total cholesterol, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterols, or low high-density lipoprotein cholesterols. The transition was confirmed if participants’ metabolic status shifted from baseline healthy to unhealthy status during follow up (2014–2018). Results We have identified 133 incident cases of CAP during follow up. Compared to those who remained metabolically healthy, the transition to high blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterols, were associated with high risk of developing carotid artery plaque (Hazards ratios (HRs) ranged from 1.69 to 2.34; p  < 0.05 for all). The transition to impaired glucose regulation, high total triglycerides, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterols, were associated with high risk of carotid artery plaque only in participants with metabolically healthy overweight at baseline (HR ranged from 1.95 to 4.62; p  < 0.05 for all). Conclusion The transition from baseline metabolically healthy status to unhealth status was associated with high risk of incident CAP.