LAUSR

Background The primary aim was to test the hypothesis that deriving pre-treatment 3D magnetic resonance tumour volume (mrTV) quantification improves performance characteristics for the prediction of loco-regional failure compared with standard maximal tumour diameter (1D) assessment in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus undergoing chemoradiotherapy. Methods We performed an early evaluation case-control study at two UK centres (2007–2014) in 39 patients with loco-regional failure (cases), and 41 patients disease-free at 3 years (controls). mrTV was determined using the summation of areas method (Volsum). Reproducibility was assessed using intraclass concordance correlation (ICC) and Bland-Altman limits of agreements. We derived receiver operating curves using logistic regression models and expressed accuracy as area under the curve (ROCAUC). Results The median time per patient for Volsum quantification was 7.00 (inter-quartile range, IQR: 0.57–12.48) minutes. Intra and inter-observer reproducibilities were generally good (ICCs from 0.79 to 0.89) but with wide limits of agreement (intra-observer: − 28 to 31%; inter-observer: − 28 to 46%). Median mrTVs were greater for cases (32.6 IQR: 21.5–53.1 cm3) than controls (9.9 IQR: 5.7–18.1 cm3, p < 0.0001). The ROCAUC for mrT-size predicting loco-regional failure was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.63–0.85) improving to 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72–0.92) when replaced with mrTV (test for ROC differences, p = 0.024). Conclusion Preliminary results suggest that the replacement of mrTV for mrT-size improves prediction of loco-regional failure after chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the anus. However, mrTV calculation is time consuming and variation in its reproducibility are drawbacks with the current technology. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-020-07613-7.