LAUSR

We investigate a volcanic hydrothermal system using numerical simulations, focusing on change in crater temperature. Both increases and decreases in crater temperature have been observed before phreatic eruptions. We follow the system’s response for up to a decade after hydrothermal fluid flux from the deep part of the system is increased and permeability is reduced at a certain depth in a conduit. Our numerical simulations demonstrate that: (1) changes in crater temperature are controlled by the magnitude of the increase in hydrothermal fluid flux and the degree of permeability reduction; (2) significant increases in hydrothermal flux with decreases in permeability induce substantial pressure changes in shallow depths in the edifice and decreases in crater temperature; (3) the location of maximum pressure change differs between the mechanisms. The results of this study imply that it is difficult to predict eruptions by crater temperature change alone. One should be as wary of large eruptions when crater temperature decreases as when crater temperature increases. It is possible to clarify the implications of changes in crater temperature with simultaneous observation of ground deformation.