LAUSR

Abstract Background Tumor size is an important prognostic factor in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). Management guidelines, staging systems, and pathological definitions use maximum diameter (Dmax) as a surrogate marker of tumor size. However, PTC nodules are three-dimensional (3D) structures, with behavior reflective of tumor cell count, which is directly proportional to volume. We explored the relationship between sonographically determined Dmax, volume, and lymph node status (LNS) in a cohort of patients with PTC. Methods All patients treated for PTC between 2003 and 2015 in our institution who had sonographic 3D nodule measurements available were evaluated. We examined the relationship between diameter, volume, and LNS. Results A total of 159 nodules in 153 patients met the inclusion criteria. Mean nodule dimensions were 2.4 × 1.9 × 1.5 cm, giving “ideal” nodule dimensions of y × 0.78y × 0.62y, where y is the Dmax. Observed volumes differed from predicted nodule volumes by an average of 26.2%. For PTC ≤2 cm, the coefficient of variation was 26.7%. Dmax did not correlate with the presence of lymph node metastases (Pearson coefficient 0.08), whereas volume very weakly correlated with LNS (Pearson coefficient 0.22). However, both Dmax and volume correlated very strongly with the number of nodal metastases (Pearson coefficients 0.93 and 0.89, respectively). Conclusions PTC nodules demonstrated significant volume heterogeneity, rendering Dmax an inaccurate marker of true tumor size. Although there was little difference between Dmax and volume in predicting nodal status or nodal disease burden, we propose that a prospective, randomized trial might demonstrate a clear clinical advantage of 3D sonographic nodule measurement over Dmax alone.