LAUSR

Background Sampling with traps provides the most common means of investigating the abundance, composition and condition of tsetse populations. It is thus important to know the size of the area from which the samples originate, but that topic is poorly understood. Methods and principal findings The topic was clarified with the aid of a simple deterministic model of the mobility, births and deaths of tsetse. The model assessed how the sampled area changed according to variations in the numbers, arrangement and catching efficiency of traps deployed for different periods in a large block of homogeneous habitat subject to different levels of fly mortality. The greatest impacts on the size of the sampled area are produced by the flies’ mean daily step length and the duration of trapping. There is little effect of trap type. The daily death rate of adult flies is unimportant unless tsetse control measures increase the mortality several times above the low natural rates. Formulae are suggested for predicting the probability that any given captured fly will have originated from various areas around the trap. Conclusions Formulae for predicting the probability that any given captured fly originated from various areas around the trap are produced. Using a mean daily step length (d) of 395m, typical of a savannah species of tsetse, then any fly caught by a single trap in a 5-day trapping period could be regarded, with roughly 95% confidence, as originating from within a distance of 1.3km of the trap, that is from an area of 5.5km2. Authors Summary We produced a simple, deterministic model to highlight important principles in the neglected matter of the probability that any trapped tsetse will have originated from various sizes of area around the trapping site. The modelling was kept simple by envisaging the use of just one trap, or a group of only five traps, evenly spaced inside a circular area within a large block of homogeneous habitat and operated for no more than 30 days. In deriving formulae for the sampled area, we found it appropriate to consider only the flies’ mean daily step length, and the number of days duration of trapping. The type of trap employed was unimportant. The daily mortality of the adult tsetse population had little effect unless the death rates imposed by control measures were several times greater than the natural rates.