LAUSR

Mexican sunflower, Tithonia diversifolia (Asteraceae), is an invasive tropical plant species native to Central America. It has spread in more than 70 countries across Asia, Africa and Australia. In Africa, this species is known to disturb native crops and plant communities, but its negative impacts remain underestimated. Moreover, its potential invasion risk has not been investigated so far. A fundamental aspect in the identification and prediction of habitats susceptible to biological invasions lies in the ability of an organism to conserve or change its ecological niche as part of the invasion process. Here, we compared the realised climatic niche of T. diversifolia between its Central American and African ranges. In addition, reciprocal distribution models were calibrated on its native and invaded ranges. Models were combined and projected to current and future climatic conditions in Africa to estimate the potential distribution of this species. Niche overlap given by Schoner's D index was low (0.23), equivalency and similarity tests suggested that the climatic niche of T. diversifolia is not similar in both ranges. However the low expansion (U = 0.09) and very high stability (S = 0.92) indices support climatic niche conservatism for this species in Africa, although it has not filled its entire niche so far. Our combined reciprocal models highlight highly suitable areas for this species in humid regions throughout East, Central and West Africa, then in some parts of South Africa and Madagascar. Future projections indicated that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats will likely remain stable.