LAUSR

Forest development is a complex phenomenon which, for the number of actors involved and the response time expressed by forests, is difficult to understand and explore. Forests in Italy, as in several areas of Europe, are experiencing intensive management and recently, an increasing impact by ungulates. The effects on forest development of these two disturbances combined are difficult to predict, and consequently to be properly managed. We used a forest landscape change model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest development as driven by forestry practices and roe deer impact for 200 years in a mountain forest of the Italian Apennines. We found that each disturbance alters forest tree species richness, forest type abundance and distribution, and forest structure. When considered combined, the two disturbances show additive behavior, enhancing or moderating each other’s effects. Forest management has a negative effect on tree species richness. We expected roe deer to have a negative effect on harvest yields, but this result was significant only for two of seven harvesting treatments. On the other hand, roe deer presence had a positive effect on tree species richness. All the simulation scenarios returned some extent of forest loss. The amount of the forest loss is lowest in the scenario without disturbances, and greatest when both disturbances are considered. However, the two disturbances combined, with the magnitude modelled in our simulations, have relatively low effects on the forest dynamics we analyzed in our study area. LANDIS-II was an effective approach for simulating combined management and ungulate driven trends of forest development, and to help understand the dynamics that lay behind it.