LAUSR

Introduction Variable and low uptake of the COVID-19 booster is a recognised problem, associated with individual characteristics including age, gender, ethnicity, and deprivation. Are there other relevant predictors at area level? Methods Anonymous grouped data was downloaded from the UK Government Coronavirus Dashboard for Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA) in England, along with demographic, employment, and health data from public sources. Mixed models with a random intercept for Upper Tier Local Authority were analysed as quasibinomial Generalized Additive Models. The estimated random effects were then fitted with Bayesian linear mixed models using flu vaccination uptake, change in public health budgets, population proportion of vaccination sites at pharmacies, GP-led, vaccination centres, and hospital hubs, and Region. Results Models for the MSOA-level COVID-19 first and second vaccinations and the Third Injection (including the booster), fit well. Index of Multiple Deprivation, proportion Aged 15-24 and 25-44, and ethnicity groupings Other White, Indian-Pakistani-Bangladeshi, and African-Caribbean-Other Black-Other, are highly significant predictors of lower uptake. The estimated random effects vary widely amongst local authorities, with positive impact of flu vaccine uptake and change in public health budgets, and regional impacts which are positive for London and South East (first and second doses only), and negative for North West and North East. The impact of vaccination sites did not reach 90% credibility, in general. Conclusion COVID-19 vaccination rates at each stage are very well modelled if local authority random effects are included along with non-linear terms for demographic, employment and health data. Deprivation, younger age, and Other White, South Asian, and African-Caribbean-Other ethnicities are associated with lower uptake. The estimated local effects show strong regional variation and are positively associated with flu vaccination and increasing public health budgets. One simple way to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake in England would be to increase local public health allocations.