LAUSR

Objectives To investigate the clinical characteristics, risk factors, and predictors of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced liver cirrhosis. Methods This comparative observational study was carried out on 100 patients suffering from post hepatitis cirrhosis and portal hypertension who were admitted to the Internal Medicine Department, Al-Azhar University Hospital, Damietta Egypt. Patients were classified into two groups: 50 of them presented with esophagogastric varices with acute variceal bleeding, and 50 patients presented without bleeding. Data were collected, coded, revised, and entered into the Stata software version 16. Results The mean age of patients with bleeding was slightly higher than those without bleeding (55.58 ± 5.89 vs. 52.54 ± 9.01 years), p = 0.049. Mild ascites, positive H.Pylori, and Child-Pugh score B and C were an independent predictors of esophagogastric variceal bleeding (OR = 0.036, 95% CI: 0.0004–0.36; p = 0.005), (OR = 7.36, 95% CI: 1.44–37.59; p = 0.016), (OR = 19.0, 95% CI: 2.02–186.3; p = 0.010), and (OR = 40.51, 95% CI: 2.18–751.31; p = 0.013). The sensitivity of this model was 93.88%, specificity was 53.85%, PPV was 88.46%, NPV was 70.0%, correctly classified patients were 85.48%, and AUC was 90.27%. In the second model, pepsinogen level higher than 43.5 μg/l, AST (>54.5), Bilirubin (>1.45), and Hemoglobin (>11.5) were a significant independent predictors of esophagogastric variceal bleeding (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.09–1.27; p<0.001), (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03–1.27; p = 0.007), (OR = 5.55, 95% CI: 1.21–25.43; p = 0.027), and (OR = 0.05, 95% CI: 0.008–0.32; p = 0.002), respectively. The sensitivity of this model was 92%, specificity was 98%, PPV was 97.87%, NPV was 92.45%, correctly classified patients were 95%, and AUC was 98.68%. Conclusion The independent predictors of esophagogastric variceal bleeding were ascites, positive H. pylori, Child-Pugh score B and C, pepsinogen level higher than 43.5 μg/l, AST (>54.5), bilirubin (>1.45), and hemoglobin (>11.5). Laboratory investigations are more reliable in predicting variceal bleeding and excluding non-variceal bleeding; however, clinical symptoms should not be neglected, especially H. pylori infection, ascites, and Child-Pugh score.