LAUSR

BACKGROUND Sustained remodeling of extracellular matrix can compromise organs and tissues. Procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP) and collagen type I carboxy-terminal telopeptide (ICTP) reflect collagen synthesis and degradation. We studied their predictive value for future death and disease. METHODS A total of 3068 men and women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and in generally good health had a baseline blood sample taken for ICTP and PIIINP. Median follow-up was 13.0 years. Among 4 primary outcomes, CVD events (n = 697) were adjudicated, death (n = 571) was by death certificate, and chronic inflammatory-related severe hospitalization and death (ChrIRD, n = 726) and total cancer (n = 327) were classified using International Classification of Diseases codes. We used Poisson regression to study baseline ICTP and PIIINP relative to these outcomes. RESULTS Mean (SD) PIIINP was 5.47 (1.95) μg/L and ICTP was 3.37 (1.70) μg/L. PIIINP and ICTP were highly correlated with each other and with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Adjustment for age and eGFR attenuated relative risks, remaining 20%-30% per SD of both PIIINP and ICTP in prediction for total death and ChrIRD, and of PIIINP for cancer, with little additional attenuation by adjusting for risk factors and inflammatory biomarkers. CVD outcome was generally unrelated to PIIINP but became marginally inversely related to ICTP in the most adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS The collagen biomarkers PIIINP and ICTP, in part through pathophysiologically parallel associations with renal function, predicted ChrIRD and total death. Moreover, PIIINP predicted future cancer. These collagen markers may help differentiate healthy from unhealthy aging.