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Testing long-run relationship between agricultural gross domestic product and fruits production: evidence from Pakistan

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portuguesEste artigo analisa a relacao de longa duracao entre o Produto Interno Bruto agricola (PIB) e a producao de frutos na economia do Paquistao durante um periodo de 1961-2015, empregando… Click to show full abstract

portuguesEste artigo analisa a relacao de longa duracao entre o Produto Interno Bruto agricola (PIB) e a producao de frutos na economia do Paquistao durante um periodo de 1961-2015, empregando Johansen e o modelo ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) tecnica de cointegracao ou tecnica de cointegracao vinculada. Tres frutas foram selecionadas neste estudo: manga, maca e pessego. Testes aumentados de Dickey-Fuller e Phillips-Perron foram utilizados para verificar a estacionaria de dados e concluir que a serie esta integrada na ordem um. A abordagem de Johansen foi aplicada para verificar a evolucao conjunta de todas as variaveis para a cointegracao. O teste de Johansen sugere que existe uma cooperacao de longa duracao entre o PIB agricola e a producao de frutos. Os resultados do modelo ARDL (Bound test) detectam a existencia de uma relacao de longa duracao entre o PIB agricola e a producao de frutos. O coeficiente da forma de curto prazo do modelo ARDL revela que todos os frutos tem um impacto positivo no PIB agricola. Alem disso, os coeficientes da forma de longo prazo do modelo ARDL tem uma influencia positiva e significativa sobre o PIB agricola do Paquistao. Estes resultados sugerem que um aumento de 1% na producao de manga, maca e pessego ira aumentar o PIB agricola em 0,6%, 0,3% e 0,3%, respectivamente. Finalmente, a previsao de desvio de erros e resultados da funcao de resposta de impulso retratam que a producao de manga, maca e pessego contribui significativamente para o PIB agricola do Paquistao. Palavras-chave: modelo ARDL; abordagem Johansen; PIB agricola; producao de frutos EnglishThis paper analyses the long-run relationship between agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and fruits production of Pakistan’s economy over a period of 1961-2015 by employing Johansen and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modern econometric technique. Three fruits were selected namely mango, apple and peach in this study. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests were used to check the data stationarity and conclude that the series are integrated of order one. The Johansen approach was applied to check the joint evolution of all the variables for co-integration. The Johansen test suggests that a long-run co-integration exists between agricultural GDP and fruits production. Results of the ARDL model (Bound test) detect the existence of long-run relationship between agricultural GDP and fruits production. The coefficient of the short-run form of ARDL model reveals that all the fruits have a positive impact on agricultural GDP. Moreover, the coefficients of the long-run form of ARDL model have apositive and significant influence on agricultural GDP of Pakistan. These results suggest that a 1% increase in mango, apple and peach production will increase agricultural GDP by 0.06%, 0.03% and 0.03% respectively. Finally, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response function results depict that mango, apple and peach production significantly contributes to agricultural GDP in the case of Pakistan. Key words: ARDL model; Johansen approach; agricultural GDP; fruits production

Keywords: johansen; agricola; production; pib agricola; long run

Journal Title: Ciencia Rural
Year Published: 2018

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