LAUSR

Background Complete tumor removal via esophagectomy or endoscopic excision has been associated with the greatest survival in early-stage esophageal cancer. However, patient health, anatomy, or goals of care may render patients ineligible for excision or resection. In this setting, chemoradiation (CRT) may be considered as a nonsurgical approach, however the outcomes associated with CRT in early-stage esophageal cancer are incompletely understood. Methods The National Cancer Database was queried for treatment-naïve cT1/T2, N0, M0 esophageal cancer patients managed with concurrent multi-agent CRT (≥50 Gy) between 2004 and 2015. Medically inoperable patients were excluded. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to estimate 5-year overall survival (OS) from diagnosis in both stages. Results Of the 828 patients identified, 279 were cT1 and 549 were cT2. For cases after 2010, cT1 (N=124) was further stratified in cT1a (N=32, 25.8%) and cT1b (N=46, 37.1%). Kaplan-Meier estimates demonstrated a 5-year survival of 21.7% for cT1 and 25.9% for cT2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to mitigate competing survival risk from poor health. Among 589 comorbidity-free patients (i.e., Charlson = score zero), the 5-year survival with CRT was 23.4% for cT1 and 27.8% for cT2. Finally, a subset of patients who refused a recommended surgery were evaluated with 5-year survival cT1 =33.5% and cT2 =33.4%). Conclusions Up to a third of selected patients with early-stage esophageal cancer may be cured after CRT as definitive non-surgical treatment. However, cure rates may be underestimated in this setting, secondary to persistent health-related bias.