LAUSR

ABSTRACT Li, C., and Zhao, J-N., 2019. A container slots allocation model Based on Demand Diversion Probability. In: Gong, D.; Zhu, H., and Liu, R. (eds.), Selected Topics in Coastal Research: Engineering, Industry, Economy, and Sustainable Development. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 94, pp. 833–837. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. In recent years, container ships continue to get larger and larger. Yet in the container shipping market, the increase of goods is limited, therefore, the use of container slots is very low. Attention has been paid to the flexible control of the callable mechanism because of inevitable prediction bias and the negative impact of overselling. Study on the callable mechanism in the maritime industry is still blank, and also none of them have considered the callable mechanism based on customers' demand diversion behavior. In this paper, firstly one kind of allocation model for maritime container slots has been proposed base on the callable mechanism, and then the discrete MNL selection model is used to describe the customers' behavior. According to the value function and decision weight of Kahneman and Tversky, the metric is used. The reference point is set as pay willingness, calculation formulas of demand diversion probability based on pay willingness and fare relationship in four different situations are derived, and modified allocation model based on the demand transition probability is concluded. The result of the example analysis shows that the modified model can increase the company's revenue by 7.03%, which verifies the validity of the model.