LAUSR

?Cuales son los mecanismos de transmision que determinan a la tasa de interes neutral que sirve de referencia para establecer la postura de politica monetaria del Banco Central? Se analiza el papel de la tasa de desocupacion y la inflacion en la determinacion de la tasa de interes neutral. La conclusion es que el Banco de Mexico podria tomar una postura de politica monetaria mas expansiva sin generar presiones inflacionarias. La tasa de interes se calcula con: 1) la regla de Taylor y un sistema de ecuaciones simultaneas cointegrado y 2) la paridad de tasas de interes. Los resultados sugieren que la tasa de interes neutral cambia a traves de dos mecanismos: 1) de manera indirecta cuando se presenta una variacion en la tasa de desocupacion, lo que genera un cambio en la inflacion y, por tanto, un desplazamiento de la tasa neutral, y 2) de manera directa cuando hay una reduccion en la brecha del producto interno bruto. ESTIMATION OF THE NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION IN MEXICO ABSTRACT What are the transmission mechanisms determining the neutral rate of interest that serves as a reference to establish the monetary policy stance of the Central Bank? We analyze the role of unemployment and inflation in determining such neutral rate. We conclude that the Banco de Mexico could take a more expansive monetary policy stance without generating inflationary pressures. The rate is calculated using two methods: 1) the Taylor rule and a cointegrated simultaneous equations system and 2) the interest rate parity. Our results suggest that the neutral interest rate changes through two mechanisms: 1) indirectly when there is a variation in the unemployment rate, which generates a change in inflation and, therefore, a shift in the neutral rate and 2) directly when there is a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product gap.