LAUSR

This study formulates a semi-analytical method to estimate statistically expected collision rates and probabilities between Earth-orbiting satellites, based on orbital state and covariance ephemeris tables. The method focuses on low-velocity interactions, for which the conjunction-by-conjunction estimation approach can be inaccurate. Comparisons to Monte Carlo simulations validate the accuracy of the calculation method. The ability to process unevenly sampled ephemerides allows application to satellites that execute frequent or continuous thrusting maneuvers. Estimating uncertainties caused by ephemeris interpolation inaccuracies enables the algorithm to detect input ephemerides with inadequate time sampling. Additionally accounting for satellite shapes and orientations requires input ephemerides that tabulate attitude information.