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PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF INDIVIDUAL HUMAN SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DAMAGING COLD EXPOSURE

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According to a systematic review of published data in both the national and international scientific indexing systems, including the results of our own researches, there have been selected evidence-based criteria… Click to show full abstract

According to a systematic review of published data in both the national and international scientific indexing systems, including the results of our own researches, there have been selected evidence-based criteria and internal genotype-phenotype risk determinants for assessing the individual susceptibility to the acute cold exposure. In accordance with these criteria, the list of cold-related health conditions was defined. This list includes 33 classes and groups of diseases and conditions by ICD-10 codes, arising from or tightly associated with the cold exposure. According to the comorbidity principles, the novel quantitative predictive model for assessing the individual susceptibility to the acute cold exposure was developed and validated. This assessment takes into account, in addition to the meteorological risk factors, also internal risk determinants, including physical status, behavioral, pathogenic and functional disorders, as well as receiving thermoregulation-altering pharmaceuticals prescribed by recommended therapeutic doses. The algorithm for calculating the individual health risk and recommended time limits based on the use of suggested comorbidity index for the acute exposure to cold in an open area or in unheated premises without special active thermal protection is described.

Keywords: predictive assessment; risk; susceptibility; cold exposure; exposure

Journal Title: Human Ecology
Year Published: 2017

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