LAUSR

Background Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and hepcidin-25 are involved in catalytic iron-related kidney injury after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. We explored the predictive value of plasma NGAL, plasma hepcidin-25, and the plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 ratio for major adverse kidney events (MAKE) after cardiac surgery. Methods We compared the predictive value of plasma NGAL, hepcidin-25, and plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 with that of serum creatinine (Cr) and urinary output and protein for primary-endpoint MAKE (acute kidney injury [AKI] stages 2 and 3, persistent AKI >48 hours, acute dialysis, and in-hospital mortality) and secondary-endpoint AKI in 100 cardiac surgery patients at intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We performed ROC curve, logistic regression, and reclassification analyses. Results At ICU admission, plasma NGAL, plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25, plasma interleukin-6, and Cr predicted MAKE (area under the ROC curve [AUC]: 0.77, 0.79, 0.74, and 0.74, respectively) and AKI (0.73, 0.89, 0.70, and 0.69). For AKI prediction, plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 had a higher discriminatory power than Cr (AUC difference 0.26 [95% CI 0.00–0.53]). Urinary output and protein, plasma lactate, C-reactive protein, creatine kinase myocardial band, and brain natriuretic peptide did not predict MAKE or AKI (AUC <0.70). Only plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 correctly reclassified patients according to their MAKE and AKI status (category-free net reclassification improvement: 0.82 [95% CI 0.12–1.52], 1.03 [0.29–1.77]). After adjustment to the Cleveland risk score, plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 ≥0.9 independently predicted MAKE (adjusted odds ratio 16.34 [95% CI 1.77–150.49], P=0.014). Conclusions Plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 is a promising marker for predicting postoperative MAKE.