LAUSR

Background and Purpose Central compartment lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is a manifestation of tumor aggressiveness and an indicator of tumor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to construct a nomogram for evaluating CLNM patterns in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in different age groups. Method A total of 907 patients diagnosed with PTC from August 2014 to December 2018 were enrolled. A nomogram illustrating CLNM was generated using the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results According to the best Youden index, we set the cut-off age at 45 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that in patients aged <45 years, large tumor size (P<0.05), extra-thyroid extension (P<0.05) and thyroglobulin level >40 ng/ml (OR=2.985, 95% CI 1.379-6.462; P<0.05) were independent risk factors; meanwhile, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (OR=0.532, 95% CI 0.324-0.874; P<0.05) was a protective factor of CLNM. In the subgroup with age ≥45 years, large tumor size (P<0.05), extra-thyroid extension (P<0.05), unclear margin (OR=1.604, 95% CI 1.065-2.416; P<0.05), male gender (OR=2.009, 95% CI 1.257-3.212; P<0.05) were independent risk factors for CLNM. In the subgroup with age <45 years, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.729 (95% CI 0.680-0.777); P<0.05) was obtained. In the ≥45 years subgroup, the AUC was 0.668 (95% CI 0.619-0.716; P<0.05). Conclusion CLNM of PTC in different age groups may have distinct patterns. Based on the potential risk factors for CLNM in patients with different age stratification, a user-friendly predictive model was established.