LAUSR

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a preventable lung disease, has the highest prevalence in the elderly and deserves special consideration regarding earlier warnings in this fragile population. The impact of age on COPD is well known, but the COPD risk of the aging process in the lungs remains unclear. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the COPD risk of the aging process in the lungs, providing an early COPD risk decision for adults. Methods COPD risk is evaluated for adults to make an early COPD risk decision from the perspective of lung radiomics features. First, the subjects are divided into four groups according to the COPD stages. Their ages are divided into eight equal age intervals in each group. Second, four survival Cox models are established based on the lung radiomics features to evaluate the risk probability from COPD stage 0 to suffering COPD and COPD stages. Finally, four risk ranks are defined by equally dividing the COPD risk probability from 0 to 1. Subsequently, the COPD risk at different stages is evaluated with varying age intervals to provide an early COPD risk decision. Results The evaluation metrics area under the curve (AUC)/C index of four survival Cox models are 0.87/0.94, 0.84/0.83, 0.94/0.89, and 0.97/0.86, respectively, showing the effectiveness of the models. The risk rank levels up every 5 years for the subjects who had suffered COPD after 60. For the subjects with COPD stage 0, the risk rank of suffering COPD stage I levels up every 5 years after the age of 65 years, and the risk rank of suffering COPD stages II and III & IV levels up every 5 years after the age of 70 years. Conclusion Once the age is above 60 years, the patients with COPD need to take action to prevent the progress and deterioration of COPD. Once the age is above 65 years, the patients with COPD stage 0 need to take precautions against COPD.