LAUSR

Predicting the prognosis of patients in advance is conducive to providing personalized treatment for patients. Our aim was to predict the therapeutic efficacy and progression free survival (PFS) of patients with liver metastasis of colorectal cancer according to the changes of computed tomography (CT) radiomics before and after chemotherapy. Methods This retrospective study included 139 patients (397 lesions) with colorectal liver metastases who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy from April 2015 to April 2020. We divided the lesions into training cohort and testing cohort with a ratio of 7:3. Two - dimensional region of interest (ROI) was obtained by manually delineating the largest layers of each metastasis lesion. The expanded ROI (3 mm and 5 mm) were also included in the study to characterize microenvironment around tumor. For each of the ROI, 1,316 radiomics features were extracted from delineated plain scan, arterial, and venous phase CT images before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Delta radiomics features were constructed by subtracting the radiomics features after treatment from the radiomics features before treatment. Univariate Cox regression and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression were applied in the training cohort to select the valuable features. Based on clinical characteristics and radiomics features, 7 Cox proportional-hazards model were constructed to predict the PFS of patients. C-index value and Kaplan Meier (KM) analysis were used to evaluate the efficacy of predicting PFS of these models. Moreover, the prediction performance of one-year PFS was also evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Results Compared with the PreRad (Radiomics form pre-treatment CT images; C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)] in testing cohort: 0.614(0.552-0.675) and PostRad models (Radiomics form post-treatment CT images; 0.642(0.578-0.707), the delta model has better PFS prediction performance (Delta radiomics; 0.688(0.627-0.749). By incorporating clinical characteristics, CombDeltaRad obtains the best performance in both training cohort [C-index (95% CI): 0.802(0.772-0.832)] and the testing cohort (0.744(0.686-0.803). For 1-year PFS prediction, CombDeltaRad model obtained the best performance with AUC (95% CI) of 0.871(0.828-0.914) and 0.745 (0.651-0.838) in training cohort and testing cohort, respectively. Conclusion CT radiomics features have the potential to predict PFS in patients with colorectal cancer and liver metastasis who undergo neoadjuvant chemotherapy. By combining pre-treatment radiomics features, post-treatment radiomics features, and clinical characteristics better prediction results can be achieved.