LAUSR

Background Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a devastating gastrointestinal emergency with significant mortality and morbidity rates. A subset of patients progressed rapidly and underwent surgical intervention within a short period. This study aimed to establish a model to predict the rapid progression of NEC in preterm neonates. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to review neonates with NEC between December 2015 and April 2019 at the Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center. Rapidly progressive NEC was defined as the need for surgical intervention or death within 48 h of NEC onset. Patients were divided into two groups: rapidly progressive NEC (RP-NEC) and non-rapidly progressive NEC (nRP-NEC). Data on demographics, perinatal characteristics, examination variables, and radiographic findings at onset were collected. Results A total of 216 preterm neonates with NEC were included in the study, of which 64 had RP-NEC and 152 had nRP-NEC. The mortality rates of patients with RP-NEC and nRP-NEC were 32.8% and 3.28%, respectively. Male sex (p-value, adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.002, 3.43 [1.57, 7.53]), portal venous gas (0.000, 8.82 [3.73, 20.89]), neutrophils <2.0 × 109/L (0.005, 4.44 [1.59, 12.43]), pH <7.3 (7.2 ≤ pH < 7.3) (0.041, 2.95 [1.05, 8.31]), and pH <7.2 (0.000, 11.95 [2.97, 48.12]) at NEC onset were identified as independent risk factors for RP-NEC. An established model that included the four risk factors presented an area under the curve of 0.801 with 83% specificity and 66% sensitivity. Conclusion Among preterm neonates with NEC, a significantly higher mortality rate was observed in those with rapid progression. It is recommended that close surveillance be performed in these patients, and we are confident that our established model can efficiently predict this rapid progression course.