LAUSR

Background There are still some challenges in diagnosing subscapularis (SSC) tendon tears as accurately as posterosuperior rotator cuff tears on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The omission of SSC tendon tears can lead to muscle atrophy, fatty infiltration and increased tear accompanied by aggravated shoulder pain and loss of function. An effective noninvasive evaluation tool will be beneficial to early identification and intervention. The study aims to identify sensitive predictors associated with SSC tendon tears and develop a dynamic nomogram to improve diagnostic performance. Methods From July 2016 to October 2021, 528 consecutive cases of patients who underwent shoulder arthroscopic surgery with preoperative shoulder MRI were retrospectively analyzed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to identify the sensitive factors associated with SSC tendon tears, which were then incorporated into the nomogram. The prediction performance of the nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C index) and calibrated with 1,000 bootstrap samples combined with external validation of another cohort. Results The LASSO method showed that six items including coracohumeral distance (oblique sagittal plane), effusion (Y-face), effusion (subcoracoid), malposition of the long head tendon of the biceps, multiple posterosuperior rotator cuff tears, and considering SSC tendon tears on MRI (based on direct signs) were determined as sensitive predictors. The nomogram achieved a good C index of 0.878 (95% CI, 0.839–0.918) with a good agreement on the risk estimation of calibration plots. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of the two methods showed that dynamic nomograms had better prediction performance than MRI diagnosis based on direct signs (training set 0.878 vs. 0.707, validation set 0.890 vs. 0.704). Conclusion The study identified sensitive predictors associated with SSC tendon tears and first developed a web-based dynamic nomogram as a good supplementary evaluation tool for imaging diagnosis that could provide an individualized risk estimate with superior prediction performance, even in patients with small or partial tears.