LAUSR

The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report indicates that climate change will affect crop growth and threaten the stability of food systems. Accumulated temperature, which is closely related to vegetation phenology and cropping systems, is an important indicator of heat in a region. Studying the history and future accumulated temperature changes can provide scientific reference for the change of crop phenology and cropping system, which is important for the improvement of grain production in China. Based on the MK trend test, MK abrupt change test and interpretable machine learning model, this study analyzes the spatial and temporal variation of accumulated temperature in China from 1979 to 2018, predicts its future variation based on CMIP6, and investigates the dominant influencing factors among different agricultural regions. The study found that (1) the accumulated temperature belt shows a northward shift and retreat trend toward higher altitudes, and the area of the high accumulated temperature belt increases year by year, leading to the narrowing of the area of the low accumulated temperature belt year by year, and the trend remains unchanged under the future scenario; meanwhile, the northward shift trend of the accumulated temperature belt is greatly mitigated and curbed under the SSP126 scenario. (2) The changes of accumulated temperature belt are mainly influenced by the increase of accumulated temperature duration days, and secondarily by the increase of temperature. The contribution brought by the first day of accumulated temperature from 1979 to 2018 is greater than that brought by the last day of accumulated temperature, while in the future scenario, on the contrary, changes in vegetation phenology delay should be given more attention.