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Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Events Using Enhanced Surface Data Assimilation

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A limited-area kilometre scale numerical weather prediction system is applied to evaluate the effect of refined surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts. The refinements include a spatially dependent… Click to show full abstract

A limited-area kilometre scale numerical weather prediction system is applied to evaluate the effect of refined surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts. The refinements include a spatially dependent background error representation, use of a flow-dependent data assimilation technique, and use of data from a satellite-based scatterometer instrument. The effect of the enhancements on short-term prediction of intense precipitation events is confirmed through a number of case studies. Verification scores and subjective evaluation of one particular case points at a clear impact of the enhanced surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts and suggest that it also tends to slightly improve them. Although this is not strictly statistically demonstrated, it is consistent with the expectation that a better surface state should improve rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: data assimilation; precipitation; surface; short range; surface data

Journal Title: Atmosphere
Year Published: 2019

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