LAUSR

There are genuine worldwide concerns regarding the contribution of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Passenger electric vehicles (EVs) are considered as a viable solution to the rapidly increasing global GHG emissions from ICE vehicles. This study investigated the future impact of perceived adoption of electric vehicles in Gauteng Province of South Africa on carbon emissions. Estimations of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were made with data from 2000 to 2018 to provide a reference period for the analysis. Projections of CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2030 were undertaken using three future cases, namely: mitigation, business as usual, and high economic growth based on the projected 20% population of electric vehicles, and four scenarios representing varying proportions of different types of EVs. The results showed an increasingly significant trend in CO2 emissions during the reference period. CO2 emissions estimated using the mitigation case showed an overall reduction in emissions of between 30% and 35%, depending on the scenario. The business as usual case showed an increase in emissions of 1–5% by 2030. The high economic growth case showed a high increase in CO2 emissions of 35–41% by 2030. The study indicates a need to accelerate the adoption of EVs with a 20% projection of the vehicle population still not enough to make a meaningful contribution towards decreasing CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles.