LAUSR

Under climate change, river ecological base flow becomes particularly critical for the health and stability of inland river ecosystems in arid regions. Taking three typical seasonal inland rivers, including the Kriya River, the Niya River, and the Qarqan River, all on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, as research objects, meteorological data from 1958 to 2019 and hydrological data from 1978 to 2014 were selected to analyze the characteristics of ecological base flow under climate change. The results show that in the past 60 years, the temperature in the Kriya River, Niya River, and Qarqan River basins has warmed at rates of 0.235 °C•(10a)−1, 0.223 °C•(10a)−1, and 0.177 °C•(10a)−1, respectively, while the precipitation has increased at the rates of 0.88 mm•(10a)−1, 3.90 mm•(10a)−1, and 7.92 mm•(10a)−1. The Tennant method was determined as the best algorithm for ecological base flow of inland rivers in arid regions. The interannual maximum values of ecological base flow all occurred in 2010, with three rivers increasing by 5.098 m3·s−1, 2.416 m3·s−1, and 11.343 m3·s−1 respectively, and the regional average increasing by 6.286 m3·s−1. The maximum ecological base flow within the year is in July, and the minimum value is in January, with a high proportion of the flood season. The monthly ecological base flow of rivers has a strong correlation with the monthly temperature and precipitation, with the strongest correlation in the Qarqan River basin and the correlation coefficients of 0.876 and 0.917. We propose ecological base flow guarantee objectives for the three rivers during the dry season, and clarify that the flood season is the key point of ecological base flow guarantee. The guarantee objectives are 0.974 m3·s−1, 0.154 m3·s−1, and 2.167 m3·s−1, for the three rivers, respectively. Our research results can provide scientific reference for the management and regulation of water resources and ecological protection of the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains.