LAUSR

Accurate risk prediction of acute graft versus host disease (aGvHD) is currently an unmet clinical need. This study sought to analyze whether three plasma proteins expressed in a largely skin- and gut-restricted manner would be affected by the development of acute cutaneous and gastrointestinal aGvHD. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, and prognostic value of plasma cytokeratin-15 (KRT15) cytokeratin-20 (KRT20), and occludin (OCLN) were evaluated in a discovery and a validation cohort using ELISA in comparison with elafin (PI3) and regenerating family member 3 alpha (REG3A), two established markers of skin- and gut aGvHD. The discovery cohort (n = 39) revealed that at the time of diagnosis, plasma KRT20 showed a progressive decrease from unaffected individuals to patients with single-, and patients with multi-organ aGvHD. KRT20 was affected by cutaneous (p = 0.0263) and gastrointestinal aGvHD (p = 0.0242) independently and in an additive manner. Sensitivity and specificity of KRT20 for aGvHD involving both target organs (AUC = 0.852) were comparable to that of PI3 for skin-aGvHD (AUC = 0.708) or that of REG3A for gut-aGvHD (AUC = 0.855). Patient follow-up in the validation cohort (n = 67) corroborated these observations (p < 0.001), and linked low KRT20 to grade 2+ disease (p < 0.001), but failed to confirm low KRT20 as an independent risk factor. These data established a link between low plasma KRT20 levels and moderate to severe aGvHD involving multiple target organs.