LAUSR

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity and has already caused extensive regional extinction. In particular danger are the plant habitats in subalpine zones, which are more vulnerable to climate change. Evergreen coniferous trees in South Korean subalpine zones are currently designated as a species that need special care given their conservation value, but the reason for their decline and its seriousness remains unclear. This research estimates the potential land suitability (LS) of the subalpine zones in South Korea for six coniferous species vulnerable to climate change in the current time (1970–2000) and two future periods, the 2050s (2041–2060) and the 2070s (2061–2080). We analyze the ensemble-averaged loss of currently suitable habitats in the future, using nine species distribution models (SDMs). Korean arborvitae (Thuja koraiensis) and Khingan fir (Abies nephrolepis) are two species expected to experience significant habitat losses in 2050 (−59.5% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 to −65.9% under RCP 8.5 and −56.3% under RCP 4.5 to −57.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively). High extinction risks are estimated for these species, due to the difficulty of finding other suitable habitats with high LS. The current habitat of Korean fir (Abies koreana), listed as a threatened species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, is expected to decrease by −23.9% (RCP 4.5) to −28.4% (RCP 8.5) and −36.5% (RCP 4.5) to −36.7% (RCP 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Still, its suitable habitats are also estimated to expand geographically toward the northern part of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. In the context of forest management and adaptation planning, the multi-model ensemble approach to mapping future shifts in the range of subalpine tree species under climate change provides robust information about the potential distribution of threatened and endanger