LAUSR

The stability of wheat production is closely related to national food security and agricultural sustainable development, and it has been a major policy concern for China. By analyzing the spatiotemporal factors and causes of wheat production, we can grasp the spatiotemporal distribution law of wheat production to rationally allocate agricultural resources. To this end, this study first conducted a quantitative analysis of the yield differentiation patterns in Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) wheat based on the 2010–2020 wheat agricultural data, comprehensively using the Theil index and exploratory spatial data analysis. Second, to eliminate the spatial heterogeneity and multicollinearity of the modeling variables, a local model of SCA-GWR combining Spearman correlation analysis (SCA) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) was established. Compared with the traditional global regression model, the superiority and applicability of the SCA-GWR model are proved, and it is a simple and effective new method to detect spatial data nonstationarity. Finally, the factors influencing wheat production in the HHH region were detected based on the SCA-GWR local model, and relevant policy recommendations were put forward. The results show that: (1) The yield difference in different farming areas gradually narrowed, and the wheat production had a significant High-High aggregation trend. The center of gravity for wheat production lies in the southwest of the HHH region. (2) Wheat production still has a strong dependence on irrigation and fertilizer. Effective irrigated areas and temperature are the main driving forces for its production. The inhibitory effect of the proportion of nonagricultural employment on wheat production gradually weakened. Radiation and rainfall were only significantly positively correlated with wheat production in the central and southern HHH region. In response to the findings of the study, corresponding policy recommendations are made in terms of optimizing the allocation of resources, increasing investment in agricultural infrastructure, and vigorously researching and developing agricultural science and technology, and the results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making and management by relevant departments.