LAUSR

Metropolitan areas are the main spatial units sustaining development. Investigating internal factor changes in metropolitan areas are of great significance for improving the quality of development in these areas. As an emerging national central city of China, Zhengzhou has experienced rapid urban expansion and urbanization. In this study, principal component analysis and the model and Geodetector model were used to comprehensively analyze the influencing factors of land use change in Zhengzhou from 1980 to 2015. Based on the CA–Markov model, we improved the accuracy of multi-criteria evaluation of suitability factors and simulated land use change in 2015. The results show that land use conversions in the study area between 1980 and 2015 were frequent, with the areas of farmland, woodland, grassland, water, and unused land decreasing by 5.00%, 17.12%, 21.59%, 18.31%, and 94.48%, respectively, while construction land increased by 53.61%. The key influences on land use change are the urbanization and growth of residential or non-agricultural populations. In 2035, the area of farmland in the study area will decrease by 11.09% compared with that in 2015 and construction land will increase by 38.94%, while the area of other land use types will not significantly change. Zhengzhou, as the center city, forms a diamond-shaped core development area of Zhengzhou–Kaifeng–Xinxiang–Jiaozuo, while Xuchang is considered an independent sub-center uniting the surrounding cities for expansion. With its radiation power of unipolar core development for many years and the developmental momentum of Zhengzhou–Kaifeng integration, Zhengzhou city jointly drives the economic development of the surrounding cities. The protection of farmland and control of the expansion of construction land are the major challenges for the Zhengzhou metropolitan area to achieve sustainable development.