LAUSR

The Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China (AZNC) is an ecologically fragile zone. It is a challenge to create scientifically sound plans for environmental conservation and agro-pastoral development due to the lack of future evolution prediction, and analysis of biocapacity (BC) and landscape characteristics. Using the Globeland30 dataset from 2000 to 2020, this study simulated 2030 land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, and analyzed the future evolution of BC and landscape patterns. The results show that: (1) The Logistic and CA-Markov models can reasonably simulate the LULC changes in the research area, with ROC indices over 0.9 and Kappa approaching 0.805, after considering the driving factors such as physical geography, regional climate, and socio-economic development. (2) From 2000 to 2030, the spatial distribution pattern of LULC does not change significantly, and cultivated land, grassland, and forest are still the dominant land types in the research area. The regional BC exhibits an increasing trend (+4.55 × 106 gha/a), and the spatial distribution pattern of BC is similar to that of LULC. (3) Changes in land miniaturization, landscape fragmentation, and decreased aggregation can be seen in the entire AZNC and specific land categories, including cultivated land, grassland, and forest. The study provides suggestions for formulating the AZNC’s future ecological protection and agro-pastoral development strategies, and guidance for the LULC simulation in other agro-pastoral zones.