LAUSR

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has a wide variation in clinical presentation and course. There is no significant correlation between these symptoms and the disease stage, although patients with more advanced stages generally have more symptoms. It is important to develop biomarkers in order to identify patients with an increased risk of complications and end-stage liver disease. This study investigated surrogate markers for risk estimation of PBC-related complications, including a study population of 77 patients with PBC who underwent liver biopsy and were measured for serum levels of macrophage activation markers, soluble CD163 (sCD163), soluble mannose receptor (sMR), and zonulin. Patients with PBC were divided into symptomatic (Group S, n = 20) and asymptomatic (Group A, n = 57) groups. The correlations of histological stages based on both Scheuer and Nakanuma classifications with the three serum markers were investigated. The Nakanuma classification involves grading for liver fibrosis and bile duct loss. The three biomarkers were assessed for their diagnostic ability to identify patients with PBC having high risk of developing complications. The predictive factors of these complications were examined as well. Group S had significantly higher serum sMR (p = 0.011) and sCD163 (p = 0.048) levels versus Group A. A composite index of sMR and sCD163 measurements had significantly better prediction performance than sCD163 alone (p = 0.012), although not when compared to sMR alone (p = 0.129). Serum sMR was an independent factor for developing complications on both univariate (Odds ratio (OR) = 30.20, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.410–267.0, p = 0.00220), and multivariate (OR = 33.70, 95% CI: 3.6600–311.0, p = 0.0019) analyses. Patients with PBC having sMR of ≥56.6 had a higher incidence of clinical complications versus those with a sMR of <56.6. Serum sMR predicts the development of complications in patients with PBC. sMR plus sCD163 showed better predictive power than either marker alone, although the addition of sCD163 did not improve the predictive power of sMR. Future prospective studies are required in order to validate the findings of the present study.