LAUSR

A number of severe ecological problems, and the altered structure of urban spaces, are ascribed to rapid urbanisation. Hence, an analytical framework for urban spatial structure and functional optimisation is highly beneficial to balance the contradiction between developing urban areas and protecting their ecosystems. In this paper, the proposed analytical framework included three parts. We first delineated the ecological suitability zones (ESZs) of Beijing City by applying the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Subsequently, considering various socioeconomic and natural environmental factors, the Markov chain model and future land-use simulation (FLUS) model were utilised to predict the urban spatial structure of Beijing in 2031. Finally, taking the ESZ results as a constraint, three scenarios were designed to optimise the extent of city sprawl: the business as usual (BAU) scenario, ecological security (ES) scenario and ecological priority (EP) scenario. We found that the ESZs contained three zones: an ecological control zone (63%), a restricted development zone (22%), and a concentrated development zone (15%). After comparing the three scenarios, we discovered that the ES scenarios ensured the bottom line in terms of Beijing’s ecological security. Additionally, under the EP scenario, the urban spatial structure and function were further optimised. Our study can provide new ideas and technical support for the reasonable layout of urban spatial structure.