LAUSR

With the population growth and the upgrading of residents’ food consumption structures, the consumption demand for herbivorous animal products will maintain relatively rapid growth. However, restrictive factors for the development of herbivorous animal husbandry in pastoral areas have increased, and how to undertake herbivorous animal husbandry in agricultural areas has become the focus of widespread social concern. This study is based on survey data of Najitun Farm of Hulunbuir Agricultural Reclamation in China. Through field investigation and computer simulation technology of system dynamics, a development system of herbivorous animal husbandry in agricultural areas was established with the development of herbivorous animal husbandry at the core, and the balance of grassland-livestock and the combination of planting-breeding as the constraint. Moreover, the system designs the development strategy compared with the development of system inertia—strengthening and optimizing herbivorous animal husbandry and optimizing the structure of grain, economy, and the feed planting industry, and simulates the above three scenarios, respectively. The study found that without any development strategy, the inertia trend is subject to the influence of factors such as the scale of female livestock, epidemic diseases, and breeding level, so it is difficult to realize the sustainable development of the industry in the next five years. However, expanding the scale of breeding alone will occupy too much environmental capacity, and there will be a shortage in the supply of grass for a long time. According to the scheme of optimizing the structure of the grain, economy, and feed planting industry, it will not only provide feed sources for grass-feeding livestock of about 58,200 sheep units, but also realize the total agricultural output value of USD 7.02 million by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is 1.89 times of the inertia trend. At the same time, the nutrient demand of grass crops has alleviated 20.42% of the environmental pressure. Based on the results of this study, it is proven that herbivorous animal husbandry has a broad development potential in agricultural areas, and at the same time, it contributes to decisions of developing herbivorous animal husbandry in agricultural areas. This study has important theoretical and practical significance for expanding the industrial space and building a new type of planting-breeding relationship.