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Linear Regression for Heavy Tails

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There exist several estimators of the regression line in the simple linear regression: Least Squares, Least Absolute Deviation, Right Median, Theil–Sen, Weighted Balance, and Least Trimmed Squares. Their performance for… Click to show full abstract

There exist several estimators of the regression line in the simple linear regression: Least Squares, Least Absolute Deviation, Right Median, Theil–Sen, Weighted Balance, and Least Trimmed Squares. Their performance for heavy tails is compared below on the basis of a quadratic loss function. The case where the explanatory variable is the inverse of a standard uniform variable and where the error has a Cauchy distribution plays a central role, but heavier and lighter tails are also considered. Tables list the empirical sd and bias for ten batches of one hundred thousand simulations when the explanatory variable has a Pareto distribution and the error has a symmetric Student distribution or a one-sided Pareto distribution for various tail indices. The results in the tables may be used as benchmarks. The sample size is n = 100 but results for n = ∞ are also presented. The error in the estimate of the slope need not be asymptotically normal. For symmetric errors, the symmetric generalized beta prime densities often give a good fit.

Keywords: heavy tails; regression heavy; distribution; linear regression

Journal Title: Risks
Year Published: 2018

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