LAUSR

The management of multi-use forests often drives forest fragmentation, which leads to decreased habitat areas and quality. We explored suitable habitat distributions of cervids to evaluate the conflict between small-scale human management and large-scale habitat conservation in human-disturbed forest landscapes. We estimated the potential habitat of roe deer (Capreolus pygargus) and determined the contribution of multiple environmental factors to habitat distribution using the presence of roe deer (N = 106) in a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. We simulated changes in the suitable habitat and characteristics of landscape patterns based on three forest management area scenarios. The results showed that the potential suitable habitat for roe deer was located mainly in the east. The variables affecting habitat suitability were similar in different scenarios, and included distance to farmland, settlements, rivers and management areas, and elevation. Distance to the management area was found to affect habitat suitability with a contribution probability from 4% to 6%. With an increase in the management area, the suitable habitat decreased. Landscape indexes showed that habitat quality decreased with management area expansion, but patch fragmentation was not aggravated. The expansion of the management area increased the range of human disturbance and had a negative impact on habitat area and quality, which adversely affected the environmental suitability for roe deer.