LAUSR

The contradiction between population and cultivated land has always been an urgent global problem, and one that is particularly prominent in China. Based on the spatial–temporal evolution of cultivated land, this paper discusses the human–land contradiction and its development trend. Then, according to the threshold of human–land contradiction and different protection objectives, the priority protection area of cultivated land was simulated. The results showed that: (1) the cellular automata (CA)–Markov model is suitable for the study area. The cultivated land in the study area increased at a rate of 4.40 sq km per year; (2) the spatial and temporal change in the cultivated land in Songpan was the largest. The center of gravity of cultivated land is moving to the northeast, and the moving rate is increasing year on year; (3) 90% of the study area was in the human–land coordination and the change in the ratio of accumulation and cultivation in some areas (such as Songpan) is increasing, making the human–land contradiction worse; (4) under a protection target of 25–100%, the priority protection area of cultivated land increased from 2.05 × 103 km2 to 3.46 × 103 km2, and the patch aggregation degree was strengthened. This study was of great significance for optimizing the distribution of cultivated land and promoting the sustainable development of land resources.