LAUSR

Accelerating the “double carbon” transformation of the manufacturing industry is the key to achieving the strategic goal of “double carbon” in China, among which the low-carbon development of the Beijing manufacturing industry is the top priority. To achieve high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in Beijing, the main task is to reduce carbon emissions and improve efficiency. Therefore, on the basis of the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index and the system dynamics (SD) method, this study analyzes the green total-factor energy efficiency trends of 25 manufacturing sub-sectors in Beijing from 2006 to 2020 and incorporates the GML index as a key variable into the construction of the SD model. It then explores the path optimization of Beijing’s manufacturing low-carbon development in the 14th Five-Year Plan period via scenario simulation and offers policy recommendations for the green-oriented transition of Beijing’s manufacturing industry. The study finds that Beijing’s manufacturing industry needs to prioritize energy structure optimization and efficient energy utilization and give full play to the city’s advantages in technological innovation and investment while supporting high-end scientific research and innovation projects to confirm the capital city’s strategic position.