LAUSR

The increasing installed volume of grid-connected PV systems in modern electricity networks induces variability and uncertainty factors which must be addressed from several different viewpoints, including systems’ protection and management. This study aims to estimate the actual performance and degradation of photovoltaic (PV) parks in Central Greece after several years of operation. Monitoring data over several years are analyzed and filtered, the performance ratio and normalized efficiency are computed, and five different ANNs are employed: (i) a feed-forward network (one hidden layer); (ii) a deep feed-forward network (two hidden layers); (iii) a recurrent neural network; (iv) a cascade-forward network; and (v) a nonlinear autoregressive network. The following inputs are employed: in-plane irradiance; backsheet panel temperature; airmass; clearness index; and DC voltage of the inverter. Monitoring data from an 8-year operation of a grid-connected PV system are employed for training, testing, and validation of these networks. They act as a baseline, built from the first year, and the computed metrics act as indicators of faults or degradation. Best accuracy is reached with the DFFNN. The ANNs are trained with data from the first year of operation, and output prediction is carried out for the remaining years. Annual electricity generation exceeds 1600 kWh /kWp, and MAPE values show an increasing trend over the years. This fact indicates a possible change in PV performance.