LAUSR

This study evaluated the desertification vulnerability of an Anatolian black pine forest in Türkiye using the Environmental Sensitivity Area Index (ESAI). Desertification Risk (DR) and ESAI values were calculated for 90 sampling plots, incorporating key indicators such as vegetation cover, soil depth, rock fragment presence, soil texture, slope gradient, parent material, mean annual precipitation, aridity index, land use intensity, and policy enforcement. These indicators were processed through the Desertification Indicator System for Mediterranean Europe (DIS4ME). Spatial patterns of DR and ESAI were analysed using semivariograms and Kriging-interpolated maps. The mean DR (4.850; range = 2.310–8.090) and ESAI (1.46; range = 1.390–1.580) values indicated significant vulnerability to desertification. DR showed moderate spatial dependence, while ESAI exhibited strong spatial dependence. Ordinary kriging maps revealed critical desertification hotspots within the forest. ESAI values varied with soil organic matter (SOM) content, which was moderately and significantly correlated with ESAI (n = 90, r = −0.58, p < 0.01). These findings provide actionable insights for sustainable land management. Interventions such as improving SOM content through afforestation, enhancing soil conservation practices, and promoting sustainable water use are critical to mitigating desertification and fostering ecosystem resilience. This study identifies high-risk areas and demonstrates how DR and ESAI can guide targeted strategies to restore degraded lands and ensure forest sustainability. This aligns with SDG 15 (Life on Land), which emphasizes the need to combat desertification, restore degraded ecosystems, and promote the sustainable management of forests. Integrating ESAI into regional policy planning highlights its potential as a practical tool for achieving long-term environmental and socioeconomic sustainability in vulnerable forest ecosystems like those in Türkiye.