LAUSR

Introduction: This study analyzes the trend of prevalence of, and factors contributing to, children with incomplete vaccination status, namely zero-dose, under-immunized, and dropout children, over time from 2003 to 2018 in Nigeria, one of the countries with the highest number of children with incomplete vaccination. Methods: Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data from 2003 to 2018 were analyzed to calculate the prevalence of children with incomplete vaccination status by geographical zone over time and to investigate the factors contributing to the change in the prevalence of such children over time based on the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition analysis. Results: The prevalence of children with incomplete vaccination status substantially decreased from 2003 to 2018 in most of zones in Nigeria. Rural areas and the northern zones had consistently higher prevalence of children with incomplete vaccination status than urban areas and the southern zones. It was identified that mothers’ education and the household wealth level explained the reduction in the prevalence of zero-dose and under-immunized children, but the degree of contribution of each factor varied by zone and place of residence, i.e., urban or rural. Both the mother’s education and household wealth level only weakly contributed to the reduction in the number of dropout children. Discussions and conclusion: Future studies should explore further how to improve the vaccination coverage in Nigeria over time. Examples of topics for future study include other contributing factors beyond education and wealth level, differential factors influencing the reduction in the number of children with incomplete vaccination status by area of residence (urban vs. rural), why the reduction in the number of dropout children is not explained by either education or wealth, and the significant contributors to the reduction in the number of such children.