LAUSR

BACKGROUND Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection induces profound alterations in the cytokine and chemokine signatures in peripheral blood. Clearance of HCV by antivirals results in host immune modification, which may interfere with immune-mediated cancer surveillance. Identifying HCV patients who remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following HCV eradication remains an unmet need. We hypothesized that antiviral therapy-induced immune reconstruction may be relevant to HCC development. AIM To investigate the impact of differential dynamics of cytokine expression on the development of HCC following successful antiviral therapy. METHODS One hundred treatment-naïve HCV patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/4) treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) or peginterferon/ribavirin who achieved sustained virologic response [SVR, defined as undetectable HCV RNA throughout 12 wk (SVR12) for the DAA group or 24 wk (SVR24) for the interferon group after completion of antiviral therapy] were enrolled since 2003. The primary endpoint was the development of new-onset HCC. Standard HCC surveillance (abdominal ultrasound and α-fetoprotein) was performed every six months during the follow-up. Overall, 64 serum cytokines were detected by the multiplex immunoassay at baseline and 24 wk after end-of-treatment. RESULTS HCC developed in 12 of the 97 patients over 459 person-years after HCV eradication. In univariate analysis, the Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), the dynamics of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) after antiviral therapy were significant HCC predictors. The multivariate Cox regression model showed that ΔTNF-α (≤ -5.7 pg/mL) was the most important risk factor for HCC (HR = 11.54, 95%CI: 2.27-58.72, P = 0.003 in overall cases; HR = 9.98, 95%CI: 1.88-52.87, P = 0.007 in the interferon group). An HCC predictive model comprising FIB-4, HbA1c, ΔTNF-α, and ΔTWEAK had excellent performance, with 3-, 5-, 10-, and 13-year areas under the curve of 0.882, 0.864, 0.903, and 1.000, respectively. The 5-year accumulative risks of HCC were 0%, 16.9%, and 40.0% in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSION Downregulation of serum TNF-α significantly increases the risk of HCC after HCV eradication. A predictive model consisting of cytokine kinetics could ameliorate personalized HCC surveillance strategies for post-SVR HCV patients.