LAUSR.org creates dashboard-style pages of related content for over 1.5 million academic articles. Sign Up to like articles & get recommendations!

Clinical online nomogram for predicting prognosis in recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery: A multicenter, retrospective study

Photo by impulsq from unsplash

BACKGROUND Methods for predicting the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery are currently lacking. AIM To establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients… Click to show full abstract

BACKGROUND Methods for predicting the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery are currently lacking. AIM To establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery. METHODS In this multicenter, retrospective study, data of consecutive patients in four large medical centers who underwent surgery for recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery were retrospectively analyzed. We constructed a nomogram to predict the prognosis of recurrent hepatolithiasis in a training cohort of 299 patients, following which we independently tested the nomogram in an external validation cohort of 142 patients. Finally, we used the concordance index (C-index), calibra-tion, area under curve, decision curve analysis, clinical impact curves, and visual fit indices to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS Multiple previous surgeries [2 surgeries: Odds ratio (95% confidence interval), 1.451 (0.719-2.932); 3 surgeries: 4.573 (2.015-10.378); ≥ 4 surgeries: 5.741 (1.347-24.470)], bilateral hepatolithiasis [1.965 (1.039-3.717)], absence of immediate clearance [2.398 (1.304-4.409)], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 2.462 [1.915 (1.099-3.337)], and albumin-to-globulin ratio ≤ 1.5 [1.949 (1.056-3.595)] were found to be independent factors influencing the prognosis. The nomogram constructed on the basis of these variables showed good reliability in the training (C-index: 0.748) and validation (C-index: 0.743) cohorts. Compared with predictions using traditional classification models, those using our nomogram showed better agreement with actual observations in the calibration curve for the probability of endpoints and the receiver operating characteristic curve. Dichloroacetate and clinical impact curves showed a larger net benefit of the nomogram. CONCLUSION The nomogram developed in this study demonstrated superior performance and discriminative power compared to the three traditional classifications. It is easy to use, highly accurate, and shows excellent calibration.

Keywords: prognosis; hepatolithiasis biliary; recurrent hepatolithiasis; biliary surgery; hepatolithiasis

Journal Title: World Journal of Gastroenterology
Year Published: 2022

Link to full text (if available)


Share on Social Media:                               Sign Up to like & get
recommendations!

Related content

More Information              News              Social Media              Video              Recommended



                Click one of the above tabs to view related content.