LAUSR

For migratory birds, wildlife managers can use the recruitment rate of young into an adult population to model population dynamics, manage harvest, or evaluate habitat. Few recruitment estimates exist for Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Antigone canadensis tabida, and estimates are outdated and local in scale. Wildlife managers can use age ratios as an index to recruitment, and surveying at fall staging areas is efficient and cost effective. We created a systematic survey design for surveying eastern population crane age ratios in the Kankakee River valley (2013–2015) in northwestern Indiana and the south-central counties of Michigan (2014–2015). Using logistic regression, we investigated factors that may cause spatial and temporal variation in age ratios, including flock size, timing within season, state, year, random vs. incidental survey routes, and observer. We stratified our selection of survey routes using a core area of high crane abundance, but do not recommend stratifying due to the added complexity and low utility. Observers determined the age of 53,371 cranes and found that the proportion of juveniles in Eastern Population crane flocks (π = 0.113, 95% CI: 0.105 – 0.122) was similar to previous estimates for the population. Proportion of juveniles was greater for south-central Michigan than for the Kankakee River valley, decreased with flock size, increased with lateness in the season, and varied among observers. Our design accounted for both ecological sources of variation in age ratios as well as nuisance variation. We recommend that future surveys use our design as part of a monitoring plan for Eastern Population cranes to support harvest management of the population and ensure that future survey results are comparable across years.