LAUSR

Abstract. Drought is a natural extreme climate phenomenon that presents great challenges in forecasting and monitoring for water management purposes. Previous studies have examined the use of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies to measure the amount of water missing from a drought-affected region, and other studies have attempted statistical approaches to drought recovery forecasting based on joint probabilities of precipitation and soil moisture. The goal of this study is to combine GRACE data and historical precipitation observations to quantify the amount of precipitation required to achieve normal storage conditions in order to estimate a likely drought recovery time. First, linear relationships between terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and cumulative precipitation anomaly are established across a range of conditions. Then, historical precipitation data are statistically modeled to develop simplistic precipitation forecast skill based on climatology and long-term trend. Two additional precipitation scenarios are simulated to predict the recovery period by using a standard deviation in climatology and long-term trend. Precipitation scenarios are convolved with water deficit estimates (from GRACE) to calculate the best estimate of a drought recovery period. The results show that, in the regions of strong seasonal amplitude (like a monsoon belt), drought continues even with above-normal precipitation until its wet season. The historical GRACE-observed drought recovery period is used to validate the approach. Estimated drought for an example month demonstrated an 80 % recovery period, as observed by the GRACE.