LAUSR

Abstract. Knowledge on the response of sediment export to recent climate change in glacierized areas in the European Alps is limited, primarily because long-term records of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) are scarce. Here we tested the estimation of sediment export of the past five decades using quantile regression forest (QRF), a nonparametric, multivariate regression based on random forest. The regression builds on short-term records of SSCs and long records of the most important hydroclimatic drivers (discharge, precipitation and air temperature – QPT). We trained independent models for two nested and partially glacier-covered catchments, Vent (98 km2) and Vernagt (11.4 km2), in the upper Ötztal in Tyrol, Austria (1891 to 3772 m a.s.l.), where available QPT records start in 1967 and 1975. To assess temporal extrapolation ability, we used two 2-year SSC datasets at gauge Vernagt, which are almost 20 years apart, for a validation. For Vent, we performed a five-fold cross-validation on the 15 years of SSC measurements. Further, we quantified the number of days where predictors exceeded the range represented in the training dataset, as the inability to extrapolate beyond this range is a known limitation of QRF. Finally, we compared QRF performance to sediment rating curves (SRCs). We analyzed the modeled sediment export time series, the predictors and glacier mass balance data for trends (Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator) and step-like changes (using the widely applied Pettitt test and a complementary Bayesian approach). Our validation at gauge Vernagt demonstrated that QRF performs well in estimating past daily sediment export (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73) and satisfactorily for SSCs (NSE of 0.51), despite the small training dataset. The temporal extrapolation ability of QRF was superior to SRCs, especially in periods with high-SSC events, which demonstrated the ability of QRF to model threshold effects. Days with high SSCs tended to be underestimated, but the effect on annual yields was small. Days with predictor exceedances were rare, indicating a good representativity of the training dataset. Finally, the QRF reconstruction models outperformed SRCs by about 20 percent points of the explained variance. Significant positive trends in the reconstructed annual suspended sediment yields were found at both gauges, with distinct step-like increases around 1981. This was linked to increased glacier melt, which became apparent through step-like increases in discharge at both gauges as well as change points in mass balances of the two largest glaciers in the Vent catchment. We identified exceptionally high July temperatures in 1982 and 1983 as a likely cause. In contrast, we did not find coinciding change points in precipitation. Opposing trends at the two gauges after 1981 suggest different timings of “peak sediment”. We conclude that, given large-enough training datasets, the presented QRF approach is a promising tool with the ability to deepen our understanding of the response of high-alpine areas to decadal climate change.