LAUSR

Abstract. Drought prediction is critical, especially where rainfall regime is irregular, such as in Mediterranean countries. A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used for evaluating rainfall trends. A bucket-type soil moisture model is used to keep track of soil moisture and calculate anomalies, and, finally, satellite-based NDVI data is used for monitoring vegetation response. The proposed CDI has four levels, in increasing amount of severity: watch, alert, warning type I and II. This CDI was then applied over the period 2003–2013 to five study sites, representative for the main grain-growing areas of SW Spain. The performance of the CDI levels was assessed by comparison against observed data on crop damage. Observations show a good match between crop damage and CDI. Important crop drought events in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage between 70 and 95 % of the total insured area, were correctly predicted by the proposed CDI in all five areas.