Abstract. Drought prediction is critical, especially where rainfall regime is irregular, such as in Mediterranean countries. A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and… Click to show full abstract
Abstract. Drought prediction is critical, especially where rainfall regime is irregular, such as in Mediterranean countries. A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used for evaluating rainfall trends. A bucket-type soil moisture model is used to keep track of soil moisture and calculate anomalies, and, finally, satellite-based NDVI data is used for monitoring vegetation response. The proposed CDI has four levels, in increasing amount of severity: watch, alert, warning type I and II. This CDI was then applied over the period 2003–2013 to five study sites, representative for the main grain-growing areas of SW Spain. The performance of the CDI levels was assessed by comparison against observed data on crop damage. Observations show a good match between crop damage and CDI. Important crop drought events in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage between 70 and 95 % of the total insured area, were correctly predicted by the proposed CDI in all five areas.
               
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